ESPN's rececnt 5 on 5

Recently espn did a 5 on 5 about the start of the season (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-120104/nba-most-impressive-disappointing-2011-12) and while it's very good, I disagree with a few things so I have decided to do my own.

1. Most Impressive team thus far.
            Without a doubt, the Portland Trail Blazers.  To me, most impressive entails that it's not expected for them to play at the level they are playing at, so that means I just can't say Heat/Thunder/Bulls because they were expected to be playing this well, but the Trail Blazers were expected to be good but there were questions as they had officially lost Brandon Roy, and they are once again without Greg Oden.  They weren't supposed to be a team that beats the Thunder by 10 and goes 4-1 in their first 5 games and they have done so, so they are my most impressive team this year.

2.  Most disappointing team thus far.
              I have to say the Knicks, they were supposed to be a top team and the east and while that's still very much a possible goal, you have to be dissapointed when you see a team with so much promise come into the season and lose to the raptors, and give up over 100 points a game.

3.  Most impressive player thus far.
               By far James Harden, he's been clearly the second best player on that team, and for a team whose point guard isn't doing too well he's been making that offense look pretty good.  Additionally he's made all the right plays at the right times.  I know he hasn't been the best overall player, but for someone who didn't start last year he's been pretty dams good.

4.  Most disappointing player thus far.
              Demarcus Cousins, without question.  Demarcus Cousins has always been talented and he's expected to produce, which I acknowledge, he has done while he's been on the floor.  But, this is a year when many people were saying Demarcus Cousins was going to step up and become a relatively mature player to help his team and what he's been doing hasn't portrayed him as mature at all.

5.  Biggest Surprise thus far.
                New Jersey's monstrosity of a season.  This was supposed to be the year that New Jersey would enter the an area that people care about in terms of basketball and that just hasn't happened.  They have looked like they genuinely couldn't care less win or lose every game and Deron Williams has been lazy, while they weren't expected to be champions, they weren't expected to be an easy win either.

What we Learned from week 1

1.  Andrew Bynum is still good.  In his first two games back, he's been the best player on the floor twice.  If he can keep this up the question will move from if the Magic want to give up Howard, to whether the Lakers want to give up Bynum.

2.  The Clippers have some problems, they play absolutely no defense, and they don't box out, and an their offense is having some trouble getting into their rhythm.  The offense will come with time, and so will the rebounding but the concern is the defense.  Looking at their roster it's clear why they are bad defensively; they're slow at the perimeter and bad inside with the exception of Deandre Jordan.

3.  The Heat and Thunder are much better than everyone else.  It's tempting to throw the Bulls into this but I'm going to stick with teams that are undefeated.  For teams that want to win the championship, they need to start fixing up their roster to find a way through these teams.

4.  The Kings are in a bad situation.  I anticipated Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins doing extremely well for them this year and it looks like that might not happen (although I'm not rescinding my prediction yet.)  I was right that Cousins would do well on the court, but underestimated his immaturity.  He's been shunned by the team and he's demanded a trade.  As for Tyreke, either he's just in a slump, or last year wasn't a fluke.  Only time will tell but I hope it's not the latter.

5.  James Harden, and Marcus Thorton are both really really good.  Marcus Thorton has appeared to be his teams best player, and James Harden has been his teams second behind none other that Kevin Durant (maybe Wrestbrook too.)  He's giving the Thunder a big 3 that competes with that of the Heat.

6.  Dwight Howard really wants out.  He's had bad production and it doesn't appear to be lack of talent but lack of effort, the only way Dwight would not try is if he doesn't want to be there.

Players Due For Better Seasons Than Their Projections

1.  Dwight Howard

a.    Upside:  Dwight Howard averaged 22.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 assists per game all while shooting 59.3% from the field.  That 1.4 steals is deceptively good, because although it doesn’t appear to be that significant, you have to remember that he is a center, generally centers get about .5 steals a game so you’re getting an extra steal every game from your center.  Think of it Dwight Howard to the average center is like Chris Paul to the average PG in terms of steals.  Additionally that 2.4 blocks, you may look down the list of centers and notice that there are a lot of centers who get you a lot of blocks and therefore you could just wait and get someone later, but what you forget is that generally, to get a shot blocker, you make a very substantial sacrifice in terms of points.  (Javale McGee, Deandre Jordan, Andrew Bogout, do I really need to go on?)  Additionally you can’t understate those rebounds.  He was second in the league behind only Kevin Love.  Also, looking at his field goal percentage you may say that there are other guys who make a lot of shots, but they don’t take as many shots as Dwight so his high field goal percentage sort of washes out your bad field goal players more, and taking a step back, it means he scores more than those guys too.  Also, if he does get traded to some place with a great passing point guard, expect him to get at least 25 ppg while shooting an even better field goal%.  Also, Dwight Howard pretty much never misses a game.

b.    Downside:  Dwight shoots an atrocious field goal percentage and he shoots a lot of field goals.  You may think you can cancel his bad FT% out with someone like Steve Nash (91.8%) but you can’t.  Steve Nash averaged 3/3.3 pg where as Dwight was 7/11.8 so in combination they are only 10/15.1 which is about 66% so you’re better off just throwing the FT% Category.  Also, Dwight Howard can only be played at Center and therefore it is harder to do your lineups when you have him.

2.    Blake Griffin

a.    Upside:  Anyone who has watched 20 seconds of clippers basketball understands that Blake Griffin is a terrific basketball player, and he can score and rebound effortlessly.  Also, if you watched  his preseason games you probably noticed, he has been working hard this summer.  His handles looked more like a guard than a power forward and he appears to have developed a mid range game.  I genuinely doubt that there will be a player in the league capable of guarding Blake Griffin.  He’s just become too athletic and talented, additionally, the clippers just got Chris Paul so you know he’s going to catch some alley-oops, look for him to get 24-27 ppg this year.  Additionally because of his new-found handles like a guard, he may have the ball while facing up this year and therefore he will get more opportunities for assists.  (he had seven against the Lakers)  and he will continue to get steals.  His Rebounding was there last year and he will likely continue to rebound well.

b.    Downside:  First off, he doesn’t play that great defense.  While he will get you steals, he’s not getting you that many blocks, but perhaps he was working on that this summer too (although it’s very unlikely.)  Additionally he shoots a bad free throw percentage with a lot of free throws.  His free throws are similar to Dwight but to a lesser extent.  Also, while this isn’t a glaring concern, he was injured his rookie season and you always have to be concerned about injuries re-occuring.

3.    Tyreke Evans

a.    Tyreke Evans had a tremendous rookie season, being the first player since Lebron to average over 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists during his rookie season.  He was able to get to the basket and create high percentage shots with relative ease.  Additionally he now has shooters around him (Marcus Thorton, Jimmer, Donte Greene). So he can dish it out for assists, or in to Demarcus.  Additionally, although his team is crap, the kid plays defense, gets 1.6 steals per game and you can expect that to go up this season.  Also, he can play both PG, and SG thereby making you more flexibility.  Lastly, don’t let this be too much of a deciding factor but Tyreke trains with the same guy as Derrick Rose and Russel Wrestbrook, and they both blossomed in their third season and this will be his third season.

b.    Last year Tyreke was not very good.  He was injured for most of the season and when he wasn’t injured he wasn’t very good.  However it’s all easily explicable.  Tyreke was injured for part of the season and he was recovering for the rest of the season.  Tyreke will look like he did with is rookie season only with a much improved shot.

4.    Javale McGee

a.    Upside:  Javale McGee is a great shot blocker and his numbers are very good in that category.  He also shoots a great field goal percentage and gets a lot of rebounds.  Additionally, although he only averaged about 10 points a game last year, he had many games with good scoring outputs where he wasn’t just getting lucky or anything but he was playing good offense.

b.    Downside:  He shoots a bad FT% (although he doesn’t take too many free throws) and although he showed offensive output occasionally, there was no pattern to his good scoring nights, so his issue wasn’t necessarily his minutes, or touches, but probably his offensive effort, or desire.  Also, he can only play center so it’s hard doing lineups with him.

5.    Greg Monroe

a.    Upside:  Greg Monroe is the only low post player on the Pistons (Unless perhaps you think Ben Wallace still has that) so no one will steal his rebounds, touches, or most importly, his minutes.  In the last few games of the season when Monroe was getting his minutes, he was averaging about 17 points and 11 rebounds all while shooting an outstanding FG% and getting 3 or 4 assists.  Additionally they just brought in Brandon Knight and if he does well, I bet the Pistons will commit to their young players and actually build a team around them that’s catered two their two young players.

b.    Downside: A large portion of these assumptions are based on hope and faith rather than factual evidence.  Although Greg Monroe Played well when he got his minutes, there was a reason he didn’t get his minutes every game.  First off, he easily gets in foul trouble, second, they had the same bigs last year so we can’t just expect everything to be different.  Well, as for why we can expect things to be different, he’s moving towards his prime, the rest of the team is moving away, and they have a new coach.  Although I must say, it was very hard to put him above Demarcus Cousins.

6.    Demarcus Cousins

a.    Upside:  Demarcus Cousins is a prolific scorer and he has already demonstrated it.  Towards the end of the season Demarcus Cousins became close to a 20/10 guy, and they unloaded Dalambert so he’s likely to get even more time.  Additionally, he get’s steals.

b.    Downside:  He shoots a terrible FG% and a Terrible FT% and as a big man you just can’t have a bad FG% (that’s how I decided to put him below Monroe), but perhaps this year that will change because more of his points will be created by Tyreke rather than him having to post up for every basket.  Also, like Monroe, he was missing minutes a lot because of fouls.

7.    James Harden
 d                     a.  Upside:  From last year it was very clear that James Harden is a complete player, he can               create his own shot, he can shoot, he can defend, he can create for others, he can pretty much do everything. The only reason he didn't average a lot is because he didn't get enough minutes, so look for him to do well again.
                        b.  Downside:  There isn't really a downside to him.  I guess he doesn't get that many blocks, and there are concerns of if he will get his time this season, but the kid is nice, expect a good season from him.


     Demar DeRozen

a.    Upside:  The kid can score, and he’s going to get the opportunities to do so.  Last year DeRozan averaged 18 ppg with Leandro Barbosa and Bargnani as his two only helpers in scoring.  This year he’ll be better offensively and he’ll get more touches (Leandro is old, the Raptors are starting to realize Bargnani is a liability in every aspect other than scoring.)

b.    Downside:  With the exception of a decent amount of rebounds, a decent amount of steals, and a decent field goal%, Derozen does nothing else.  Generally your scorers excel in at least one category other than scoring.  Additionally, his partner at shooting guard, Leandro Barbosa,  is in a contract year and therefore he may have a breakout season.